When is el nino coming back

Above-normal temperatures are also likely over much of the northern high latitudes except over north-western North America , southern, central and eastern parts of South America, and equatorial and northern regions of Africa. These include increased chances of unusually wet conditions over much of South East Asia, Australia and northern South America and islands in Melanesia. Southern Africa may also see above-normal rainfall. The important October-December East Africa "short rains" season saw mixed rainfall amounts across the region, with generally drier conditions observed to the north and east, and wetter or nearer normal conditions observed to the south and west of the region, according to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Adaptation Centre ICPAC.

Mixed rainfall patterns are also forecast from February to April. Many parts of southern Africa have seen above average rainfall. In August, the Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated hurricane outlook, so stay tuned for more info on that. In the meantime, you can read the outlook from May to see what scientists were thinking two months ago. Originally submitted by Dan, on Thu, Boy, we sure hope that if it does turn out to be a La Nina year , it is an anomaly and we can get at least close to normal rainfall in Southern and Central California.

If not, there are rivers in the foothills of the Sierras i. All it takes it a couple of major storms We need rain, and snow, all up and down our Sierras. Klamath River is dying, too.

Sometimes we have wetter conditions during La Nina winters in California, so dry conditions aren't set in stone. ENSO is important as a prediction tool for California, but it is not the entire ballgame. Here's an example of one memorable wet La Nina winter:.

La Nina offers a hedge in the direction of certain future outcomes, but not a guarantee. I am very much hoping so cal does not get stuck in a warmer fall and winter with heightened fire risk. We are beyond ready for the heat to pass. Catching rainwater is a necessity and a god-given right protect yourselves and greywater is a wonderful way to keep up on watering food and Gardens I know you.

There have been times we were going to have a very wet winter and didn't. I have always asked but still don't know where to go to the proper people, why haven't we built more Dams? I am sure there are many locations where we can catch water and save or distribute it more evenly to proper locations throughout California.

With all the political big brains and technology we have surely someone should be able to come up with a brainstorm in collecting and saving water.

Governor, Mayors, County, and city managers get your heads together and figure something out that won't hurt the public. Save water by not building more structures, buildings, houses, parking lots. Most every tree uses 10 gallons of water everyday per inch of diameter measured at about 5 feet. Well yes, no forest fires without forests. Faster-moving brush fires instead. But tree roots hold moisture so rain doesn't just run off and take topsoil with it. In deforested areas, replanting often mediates run-off and works to refill lakes, rivers, groundwater reserves.

I hope the west gets rain. Flavors like Modoki are actually represented by a continuum that also scales by intensity. In other words, looking a the strength of Nino However, the SST anomaly patterns for El Nino events tend to be more distinctive than for La Nina events which look more similar to each other.

It is especially not clear that La Nina events should be classified by flavor. By atmosphere, do you mean lunar? It's becoming clear that ENSO is riven by a lunar forcing coupled to a strong annual signal, see. Lin, J. Sci Rep 9, I agree, they need to pay attention to this article. In addition to this reply I have posted another blog comment below.

Cold, stormy weather and hurricanes could plague the East Coast in the coming months. Chilly waters push the jet stream northward, making for a warmer winter in the South and a cooler than normal one in the North.

That could mean weather in the Americas could get just a little bit scary —including a boost in hurricane-favorable conditions that will last longer into the fall, a worsening of already dramatic droughts across the Southwest, and building the recipe for a cold and stormy winter in the Northern US, and possibly spurring tornado activity in other parts of the US come spring.

Global temperatures are currently running at around the level projected by the generation of climate models featured in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change IPCC fifth assessment report AR5.

The coloured lines show the temperature for each year, while the dots on the right-hand side show the year-to-date estimate for January to April or January to March for Berkeley Earth.

Values are shown relative to a common baseline period — the average temperature for each series. Surface temperature records have shown around 0. The year-to-date values in this chart will be updated when that data becomes available. The temperatures in the first four months of were the seventh warmest first four months of the year on record, behind all of the past six years — but warmer than every year on record prior to The figure below shows how temperatures to-date compare to prior years in the NASA dataset.

It shows the temperature of the year-to-date for each month of the year, from January through to the full annual average. ENSO events are characterised by fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific, which help to make some years warmer and some cooler. This can be seen in the figure below, which shows a range of ENSO forecast models produced by different scientific groups, with the average for each model type shown by thick red, blue and green lines.

Positive values above 0. That said, most of the remainder of the year will likely be modestly warmer and, overall, annual temperatures will be warmer than that experienced over the first four months.